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Author (up) Brimblecombe, P. file  url
  Title London air pollution, 1500-1900 Type Journal Article
  Year 1977 Publication Atmospheric Environment Abbreviated Journal Atmos Environ  
  Volume 11 Issue 12 Pages 1157-1162  
  Keywords Air Pollution--history; Coal; History, 16th Century; History, 17th Century; History, 18th Century; History, 19th Century; Humans; London; Models, Theoretical; Seasons; Sulfur Dioxide--analysis; Vitamin D Deficiency--etiology  
  Abstract Documentary evidence for the changes in the air pollutant levels and climate of London are compared with the results obtained from a simple single box model for the annual mean SO2 and particulate levels in the London air. Sulphur dioxide reaches a maximum of nearly 200 μg m−3 in a plateau that stretches from 16901880. Particulate concentrations show a peak at the end of the 19th century.  
  Call Number Serial 982  
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Author (up) Chen, C.; Zhang, G.; Liu, X.C.; Ci, Y.; Huang, H.; Ma, J.; Chen, Y.; Guan, H. file  url
  Title Driver injury severity outcome analysis in rural interstate highway crashes: a two-level Bayesian logistic regression interpretation Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication Accident; Analysis and Prevention Abbreviated Journal Accid Anal Prev  
  Volume 97 Issue Pages 69-78  
  Keywords Accidents, Traffic/*statistics & numerical data; Adolescent; Adult; Automobile Driving/*statistics & numerical data; Bayes Theorem; China; Female; Humans; Logistic Models; Male; Middle Aged; Models, Theoretical; *Rural Population; Safety/*statistics & numerical data; Seat Belts/utilization; Bayesian inference; Driver injury severity; Hierarchical model; Rural interstate highway; Traffic crash  
  Abstract There is a high potential of severe injury outcomes in traffic crashes on rural interstate highways due to the significant amount of high speed traffic on these corridors. Hierarchical Bayesian models are capable of incorporating between-crash variance and within-crash correlations into traffic crash data analysis and are increasingly utilized in traffic crash severity analysis. This paper applies a hierarchical Bayesian logistic model to examine the significant factors at crash and vehicle/driver levels and their heterogeneous impacts on driver injury severity in rural interstate highway crashes. Analysis results indicate that the majority of the total variance is induced by the between-crash variance, showing the appropriateness of the utilized hierarchical modeling approach. Three crash-level variables and six vehicle/driver-level variables are found significant in predicting driver injury severities: road curve, maximum vehicle damage in a crash, number of vehicles in a crash, wet road surface, vehicle type, driver age, driver gender, driver seatbelt use and driver alcohol or drug involvement. Among these variables, road curve, functional and disabled vehicle damage in crash, single-vehicle crashes, female drivers, senior drivers, motorcycles and driver alcohol or drug involvement tend to increase the odds of drivers being incapably injured or killed in rural interstate crashes, while wet road surface, male drivers and driver seatbelt use are more likely to decrease the probability of severe driver injuries. The developed methodology and estimation results provide insightful understanding of the internal mechanism of rural interstate crashes and beneficial references for developing effective countermeasures for rural interstate crash prevention.  
  Call Number Serial 1784  
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Author (up) Duan, H. file  url
  Title Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China Type Journal Article
  Year 2017 Publication Environmental Research Abbreviated Journal Environ Res  
  Volume 152 Issue Pages 342-350  
  Keywords Air Pollution/*prevention & control; China; *Climate Change; Coal/analysis; Global Warming/prevention & control; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention & control; Models, Economic; Models, Theoretical; Power Plants; Renewable Energy; *Wind; *Climate integrated model; *Fossil fuel substitution; *Temperature benefits; *Wind energy  
  Abstract BACKGROUND: As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. METHODS: We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiative forcing and warming. RESULTS: Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming.  
  Call Number Serial 2104  
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Author (up) Firsov, A.A.; Strukova, E.N.; Portnoy, Y.A.; Shlykova, D.S.; Zinner, S.H. file  url
  Title Bacterial antibiotic resistance studies using in vitro dynamic models: Population analysis vs. susceptibility testing as endpoints of mutant enrichment Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents Abbreviated Journal Int J Antimicrob Agents  
  Volume 46 Issue 3 Pages 313-318  
  Keywords Anti-Bacterial Agents/*pharmacology; Ciprofloxacin/*pharmacology; *Drug Resistance, Bacterial; Humans; Microbial Sensitivity Tests; Models, Theoretical; Mutation; Pseudomonas Infections/microbiology; Pseudomonas aeruginosa/*drug effects/*growth & development/isolation & purification; *Selection, Genetic; Time Factors; Bacterial resistance studies; Fluoroquinolones; Population analysis; Pseudomonas aeruginosa; Susceptibility testing  
  Abstract Emergence of bacterial antibiotic resistance is usually characterised either by population analysis or susceptibility testing. To compare these endpoints in their ability to demonstrate clear relationships with the ratio of 24-h area under the concentration-time curve (AUC24) to the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC), enrichment of ciprofloxacin-resistant mutants of four clinical isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa was studied in an in vitro dynamic model that simulates mono-exponential pharmacokinetics of ciprofloxacin over a wide range of the AUC24/MIC ratios. Each organism was exposed to twice-daily ciprofloxacin for 3 days. Amplification of resistant mutants was monitored by plating on media with 2x, 4x, 8x and 16x MIC of ciprofloxacin. Population analysis data were expressed by the area under the bacterial mutant concentration-time curve (AUBCM). Changes in P. aeruginosa susceptibility were examined by daily MIC determinations. To account for the different susceptibilities of P. aeruginosa strains, post-exposure MICs (MICfinal) were related to the MICs determined with the starting inoculum (MICinitial). For each organism, AUC24/MIC relationships both with AUBCM and MICfinal/MICinitial were bell-shaped, but the latter were more strain-specific than the former. Using combined data on all four isolates, AUBCM showed a better correlation than MICfinal/MICinitial (r(2)=0.75 vs. r(2)=0.53). The shift of MICfinal/MICinitial relative to AUBCM vs. AUC24/MIC curves resulted in a weak correlation between AUBCM and MICfinal/MICinitial (r(2)=0.41). These data suggest that population analysis is preferable to susceptibility testing in bacterial resistance studies and that these endpoints should not be considered interchangeable.  
  Call Number Serial 1214  
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Author (up) Hanley, J.A.; McNeil, B.J. file  url
  Title A method of comparing the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves derived from the same cases Type Journal Article
  Year 1983 Publication Radiology Abbreviated Journal Radiology  
  Volume 148 Issue 3 Pages 839-843  
  Keywords Models, Theoretical; Probability; *Statistics as Topic; *Technology, Radiologic  
  Abstract Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are used to describe and compare the performance of diagnostic technology and diagnostic algorithms. This paper refines the statistical comparison of the areas under two ROC curves derived from the same set of patients by taking into account the correlation between the areas that is induced by the paired nature of the data. The correspondence between the area under an ROC curve and the Wilcoxon statistic is used and underlying Gaussian distributions (binormal) are assumed to provide a table that converts the observed correlations in paired ratings of images into a correlation between the two ROC areas. This between-area correlation can be used to reduce the standard error (uncertainty) about the observed difference in areas. This correction for pairing, analogous to that used in the paired t-test, can produce a considerable increase in the statistical sensitivity (power) of the comparison. For studies involving multiple readers, this method provides a measure of a component of the sampling variation that is otherwise difficult to obtain.  
  Call Number Serial 1962  
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Author (up) Hilborn, R. file  url
  Title Introduction to marine managed areas Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Advances in Marine Biology Abbreviated Journal Adv Mar Biol  
  Volume 69 Issue Pages 1-13  
  Keywords Animals; *Conservation of Natural Resources; *Fisheries; Models, Theoretical; Oceans and Seas; Closed areas; Fisheries management; MPAs; Marine protected areas; Marine reserves; Spatially explicit management  
  Abstract No issue in marine conservation and management seems to have generated as much interest, and controversy as marine protected areas (MPAs). In the past 30 years, a substantial scientific literature on the subject has developed, international agreements have set targets for proportion of the sea to be protected, and hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on research and advocacy for MPA establishment. While the objectives of MPAs are diverse, few studies evaluate the success of MPAs against stated objectives. It is clear that well-enforced MPAs will protect enough fish from exploitation that within reserves abundance increases, fish live to be larger, and measures of diversity are higher. What is much more poorly understood is the impacts of reserve establishment on areas outside reserves. Theory suggests that when stocks are seriously overfished outside reserves, the yield and abundance outside the reserves may be increased by spillover from the reserve. When stocks are not overexploited, reserve establishment will likely decrease the total yield. The chapters in this volume explore a broad set of case studies of MPAs, their objectives and their outcomes.  
  Call Number Serial 1565  
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Author (up) O'Donnell, M.L.; Bryant, R.A.; Creamer, M.; Carty, J. file  url
  Title Mental health following traumatic injury: toward a health system model of early psychological intervention Type Journal Article
  Year 2008 Publication Clinical Psychology Review Abbreviated Journal Clin Psychol Rev  
  Volume 28 Issue 3 Pages 387-406  
  Keywords Cognitive Therapy/methods; Delivery of Health Care/*methods; Disease Susceptibility/diagnosis/psychology; Follow-Up Studies; Hospitalization; Humans; Interviews as Topic; Life Change Events; *Models, Theoretical; Prevalence; Psychotherapy/*methods; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/diagnosis/epidemiology/*therapy; Stress, Psychological/etiology/psychology/therapy; Survivors/psychology/statistics & numerical data; Trauma Severity Indices; United States/epidemiology; Wounds and Injuries/complications/*psychology  
  Abstract In 2005, over 2 million people in the United States of America were hospitalised following non-fatal injuries. The frequency with which severe injury occurs renders it a leading cause of posttraumatic stress disorder and other trauma-related psychopathology. In order to develop a health system model of early psychological intervention for this population, we review the literature that pertains to mental health early intervention. The relevant domains include prevalence of psychopathology following traumatic injury, the course of symptoms, screening, and early intervention strategies. On the basis of available evidence, we propose a health system model of early psychological intervention following traumatic injury. The model involves screening for vulnerability within the hospital setting, follow-up screening for persistent symptoms at one month posttrauma, and early psychological intervention for those who are experiencing clinical impairment. Recommendations are made to facilitate tailoring early intervention psychological therapies to the special needs of the injury population.  
  Call Number Serial 1163  
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Author (up) Schiavenato, M.; Craig, K.D. file  url
  Title Pain assessment as a social transaction: beyond the “gold standard” Type Journal Article
  Year 2010 Publication The Clinical Journal of Pain Abbreviated Journal Clin J Pain  
  Volume 26 Issue 8 Pages 667-676  
  Keywords Humans; Models, Theoretical; *Pain/diagnosis/physiopathology/psychology; Pain Measurement/*methods/*standards; *Self Report/standards; *Social Behavior  
  Abstract Pain assessment conventionally has been viewed hierarchically with self-report as its “gold-standard.” Recent attempts to improve pain management have focused on the importance of assessment, for example, the initiative to include pain as the “fifth vital sign.” We question the focus in the conceptualization of pain assessment upon a “vital sign,” not in terms of the importance of assessment, but in terms of the application of self-report as a mechanistic index akin to a biologic measure such as heart rate and blood pressure. We synthesize current inclusive models of pain and pain assessment and propose a more comprehensive conceptualization of pain assessment as a transaction based on an organismic interplay between the patient and clinician.  
  Call Number Serial 1930  
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Author (up) Tanner, M.; Vlassoff, C. file  url
  Title Treatment-seeking behaviour for malaria: a typology based on endemicity and gender Type Journal Article
  Year 1998 Publication Social Science & Medicine (1982) Abbreviated Journal Soc Sci Med  
  Volume 46 Issue 4-5 Pages 523-532  
  Keywords Culture; Disease Outbreaks/*prevention & control; Female; Health Behavior; Health Services Research; Humans; Malaria/epidemiology/*prevention & control; Models, Theoretical; *Patient Acceptance of Health Care  
  Abstract A main component of current malaria control strategies to reduce malaria-related mortality and severe morbidity is early diagnosis and treatment at peripheral health services such as village health posts and dispensaries. This strategy has been promoted mainly by sensitising the population with regard to the available service offered and by providing classical biomedical descriptions of symptoms and signs of malaria. This strategy represents important challenges for successful implementation and maintenance. Early treatment depends upon prompt recognition of symptoms and signs of malaria in the household, i.e. mainly by women. Early treatment also requires that appropriate health services and medication are accessible and used. In this paper we argue that the success of malaria control depends upon an approach that is gender-sensitive and takes into account the level of endemicity in a given setting. The level of endemicity determines which group of the population is at highest risk for infection, morbidity and mortality, and is strongly related to gender considerations. The paper develops a typology that combines the key factors of gender variables with epidemiological features. It consequently outlines an approach to community-based, effective malaria control tailored to a given endemic setting. Finally, we suggest that the proposed framework could be validated for its potential application to the control of other communicable diseases.  
  Call Number Serial 167  
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