Background:
Do you see a trend?
More episodes of excessive, even extreme rainfall leading to widespread, frequent, and long-lasting flooding. It is happening in the midwestern United States–and other regions around the world.
Is this unexpected?
No, predictions since at least the 1980’s based on unrestrained climate change have forecast this very scenario. And, recent research backs it up showing “a tendency towards greater and more frequent extreme precipitation” and “an increasing trend in the annual daily maximum rainfall, and an increase in the annual number of rainfall events above the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile thresholds … since 1890.”
Impacts? A long list that includes loss of agricultural production, costly damage to roads and other infrastructure, severe business losses, loss of homes, livelihoods, even ways of life, the spread of disease, despair … people are dying.
It’s happening now, today, in the United States. We have to adapt; to adapt successfully though requires actual regard for the common good and cooperation. We have to work together; can we do that?
Sources:
*Rahmani, V., Hutchinson, S. L., Harrington, John A., Jr, & Hutchinson, J. M. S. (2016). Analysis of frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events with potential impacts on flooding: a case study from the central United States. International Journal of Climatology, 36(10), 3578-3587. [Cited by]
“Climate variability and change can impact rainfall by varying time, location, magnitude, and frequency of precipitation events. Fluctuations in heavy rainfall events can impact flooding and drought events and water management systems. This research addresses temporal and spatial distributions of extreme daily and monthly rainfall in Kansas using daily rainfall data from 23 stations for the period 1890–2013. The Mann–Kendall non-parametric method was used in trend analysis. Results indicate an increasing trend in the annual daily maximum rainfall, and an increase in the annual number of rainfall events above the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile thresholds at a majority of stations since 1890. The most recent 30-year climate normal period (1981–2010) was selected to assess contemporary change compared to the entire period (1890–2013). Most stations have a steeper positive slope for all extreme rainfall parameters for 1981–2010. Generally, western Kansas receives smaller and fewer extreme storms than eastern Kansas with respect to both magnitude and frequency.
Since 1890, June has been the month that receives the greatest amount of rain in each year at a majority of stations (18 of 23). Stations in eastern Kansas tend to experience earlier maximum rainfall on a monthly basis than central and western stations. Earlier annual maximum monthly rains can affect soil moisture and runoff generation. Timely maintenance and improvement in water, soil, and flood management systems are necessary in order to increase preparedness of the society to flash floods and protect them from water management systems failures.”
*Rahmani, V., & Harrington, J., Jr. (2019). Assessment of climate change for extreme precipitation indices: A case study from the central United States. International Journal of Climatology, 39(2), 1013-1025. [Cited by]
“Five extreme precipitation indicators were calculated on an annual basis for 1890 through 2013 and analysed to determine spatial patterns and temporal trends in the frequency and magnitude of observed extreme precipitation events in Kansas located in the central United States. Indicators were selected from the list of the World Meteorological Organization–Commission for Climatology (WMO–CCL) and the Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR). The indicators included the number of days with precipitation greater than or equal to 10 mm/day (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD; days with precipitation lower that 1 mm), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5D), and simple daily intensity index (SDII) which is the annual precipitation total divided by number of days with precipitation greater than or equal to 1 mm, and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile (R95T) based on the period 1961–1990. Positive trends in the results were found for a majority of stations for R10, R5D, SDII, and R95T. Consecutive dry days was the only index that had a negative trend at a majority of stations. Spatial pattern analysis indicates greater changes in frequencies and magnitudes for eastern Kansas. Results from this study highlight observed climate shifts in precipitation patterns with a tendency towards greater and more frequent extreme precipitation in eastern Kansas and a tendency towards drier conditions in western Kansas. These hydroclimatic adjustments can produce costly impacts in areas that include flood management, hydraulic structures, water availability throughout the year, agricultural production, ecosystems, and human health.“
Questions? Please let me know (engelk@grinnell.edu).
**updated May 29, 2026**
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