How and when does an established viewpoint of a society change? What does it take for a society (a very large group of people) to alter its collective opinion? Is there a “tipping point” for public opinion?
A 2018 study using a naming game discovered that when a minority viewpoint became held by “at least 25% of the population,” that viewpoint “was likely to rapidly become the majority viewpoint.” In the naming game, “all participants participated as equals, similar to the way anonymous individuals interact online” through social media. A small minority of people can become powerful/influential by “pure, unwavering commitment to an idea.”
Go to the source —
, D., , J., , D., & , A. (2018). Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention. Science, 360(6393), 1116-1119. [PDF] [Cited by]
“Theoretical models of critical mass have shown how minority groups can initiate social change dynamics in the emergence of new social conventions. Here, we study an artificial system of social conventions in which human subjects interact to establish a new coordination equilibrium. The findings provide direct empirical demonstration of the existence of a tipping point in the dynamics of changing social conventions. When minority groups reached the critical mass—that is, the critical group size for initiating social change—they were consistently able to overturn the established behavior. The size of the required critical mass is expected to vary based on theoretically identifiable features of a social setting. Our results show that the theoretically predicted dynamics of critical mass do in fact emerge as expected within an empirical system of social coordination.”
See a more recent source:
*Everall, J. P., Tschofenig, F., Donges, J. F., & Otto, I. M. (2025). The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority. Earth System Dynamics, 16(1), 189-214. [PDF] [Cited by]
“How do social networks tip? A popular theory is that a small minority can trigger population-wide social change. This aligns with the Pareto principle, a semi-quantitative law which suggests that, in many systems, 80% of effects arise from 20% of the causes. In the context of the transition to net-zero emissions, this vital 20% can be a critical instigator of social tipping, a process which can rapidly change social norms. In this work, we asked whether the Pareto effect can be observed in social systems by conducting a literature review, placing a focus on social norm diffusion and complex contagion via social networks. By analysing simulation and empirical results of social tipping events across disciplines and a large parametric space, we identified consistent patterns across studies and key factors which help or hinder social tipping. We show evidence supporting a tipping point near 25% of the total population within our compiled dataset. Near this critical mass, we observe a high likelihood for a social tipping event, where a large majority quickly adopts new norms. Our findings illustrate slight variations between modelling and empirical results, with average tipping points at 24% and 27%, respectively. Additionally, we show a range of critical masses where social tipping is possible; these values lie between 10% and 43%. These results indicate the potential, but not the inevitability, of rapid social change in certain susceptible populations and contexts. Finally, we provide practical guidance for facilitating difficult norm changes by (1) leveraging trusted community structures and building critical mass in clustered networks (particularly in the 10%–43% threshold range), (2) adapting strategies based on norm type and context, and (3) targeting groups with moderate preferences and network positions – avoiding reliance on highly central or well-connected individuals – to enable endogenous spread.”
This is an update to a post that originally appeared on June 12, 2018.
See also:
The Behavior of crowds: partisan/politicized
Questions? Please let me know (engelk@grinnell.edu).
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